Latest Monthly Assessment - During the past month, beneficial rainfall was observed across the Great Plains and brought 1-3 class drought improvement or removal over the region. Moderate to severe (1-2 class) drought developed rapidly in late May and early June over parts of the central-southern Florida Peninsula and then much of the drought was wiped out by extreme heavy rainfall recently. Sporadic drought improvement was seen over portions of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and Four Corners due to beneficial rainfall received. However, much of the eastern CONUS did miss out on meaningful precipitation coupled with anomalous heat recently, especially across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Carolinas, southern Georgia and northern Florida where anomalous dryness and moderate to severe drought developed rapidly. For much of Montana and Wyoming, and portions of the Southern Plains, where precipitation deficits have continued to mount and excessive heat has exacerbated the dryness across the regions in recent weeks.



Looking forward to July 2024, persistence, resulting in intensification, is favored for the existing drought regions across the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS), due to warmer and drier than normal conditions predicted across much of those regions. Those predictions also favor the potential for drought conditions to develop over anomalous dry areas across portions of the interior Pacific Northwest eastward to Northern Plains. Persistence is also forecast for the existing drought over portions of the Central and Southern Plains with coincident development favored in parts of the Central and Southern Plains, supported by antecedent dryness, warmer and drier than normal conditions forecast throughout much of July. Persistence is predicted for the existing drought across much of the eastern CONUS with potential development favored across the portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Southern Appalachians due to lack of wet signals in forecast coupled with warmer than normal conditions, except for the Florida Peninsula where drought removal is favored due to forecast above normal precipitation for the July and favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. In east-central mainland Alaska, a small moderate drought developed recently in the and is likely to be removed by the end of July due to forecast favorable wet signals. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are forecast to remain drought-free by the end of July 2024. In Hawaii, persistence is favored for the existing drought, with the potential for drought development in some areas currently experiencing abnormal dryness (D0 as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor).



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion